Talent vs Luck 

Talent vs Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure

Our fist paper  

Advances in Complex Systems - Vol. 21, No. 03n04, 1850014 (2018)


Our Book about this project in Italian:

Talento e fortuna. Gli ingredienti del successo (2019)

A film on our paper by Mario Mele: A shadow on Meritocracy  (In Italian with English subtitles)
Here on Amazon

Interview for the Korean TV SBS (at 09:06 and 37:56) 

Other papers by our group on the same topic

1. The origins of extreme wealth inequality in the talent versus luck model , Ad. Compl. Systems (2020)

2.Inequalities, chance and success in sport competitions: Simulations vs empirical data,  Physica A (2020) 

3. On the Role of Chance in Fencing Tournaments: an Agent-Based Approach,  Plos One (2022) 

Some links about our first paper: 


- Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure (Improbable research, 2018)


- MIT Technology Review: The Best of the Physics arXiv (week ending February 24, 2018)


- Talento o fortuna? Il ruolo del caso nel successo o nel fallimento (Il Merito.org, 1 Marzo 2018)


- If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance (MIT Technology Review, March 1, 2018)


- The Role of Luck in Life Success is Far Greater Than We Realized (Scientific American, March 1, 2018)


- Successful people owe much more to LUCK than we thought: Being smart and talented ISN'T enough, say scientists

(MailOnline - Science and Tech, March 2, 2018)


- Life definitely isn’t fair, new research shows (Cosmos, The science of everything, March 2, 2018)


- Se siete così intelligenti, perché non siete ricchi? E’ solo per caso (Milano Finanza, 2 Marzo 2018)


- Life positively isn’t honest, new analysis exhibits (Cosmopolitan, 2 Marzo 2018)


- World's most successful people are simply the luckiest (News2Read, March 2, 2018)


- World's most successful people are simply the luckiest (Video News Technology, March 2, 2018)


- How much does luck play in being successful? (NZherald Business, March 3, 2018)


- If you’re so smart then why aren’t you rich? Here is the answer (Sky Valley Chronicle, March 3, 2018)


- So You're Smart, But You're Not Rich? This Eye-Opening New Scientific Study Tells You Why (INC., March 4, 2018)


- Better lucky than smart (Le Temps, March 4, 2018)


- Méritocratie ? La chance est déterminante pour devenir riche (Express Business, March 4, 2018)


- Talent vs. Luck! And the winner is... (Mind the Post, March 4, 2018)


- Successful people owe much more to luck than we thought (Sunday Times, March 4, 2018)


- Sorte é mais importante do que talento na busca pelo sucesso (Galileu.br, March 5, 2018)


- Meritocratic failure (Progressive Pulse, March 5, 2018)


- Il segreto del successo (Scienza, Tecnologia, Quisuilie e Pinzellacchere, 5 Marzo 2018)


- Success Comes Down to Skill - And a Lot of Luck (Discover Magazine, March 5, 2018)


- Warum Glück für Erfolg entscheidender ist als Talent (Welt.de, March 7, 2018)


- Sa ndikon fati në të qenët i suksesshëm (Monitor.al, March 7, 2018)


- Vì sao ban thòng minh mà vàn khòng giàu? (TiaSàng Vietnam, March 7, 2018)


- Füüsikud: aeg on tunnistada õnne ja juhuslikkuse olulisust (Novaator Estonia, March 7, 2018)


- Selon une simulation informatique, la réussite financière est surtout une affaire de chance (Konbini.com, March 9, 2018)


- Ten interesting things that we read this week - Point 3 (Forbes India, March 10, 2018)


- The dirty secret about success (BBC Capital, March 10, 2018) - VIDEO


- Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure. Some Quick Thoughts On this Paper (Medium Corp., March 10, 2018)


- Luck: the loser's excuse (Politics&Prosperity, March 11, 2018)


- On Luck, Randomness and Success (Mercartto, March 11, 2018)


- Scientists Analysed The Secret to Becoming Rich, And Talent Is Not Part of It (Science Alert, March 11, 2018)


- Secondo la scienza la fortuna conta, eccome (Stile.it, 12 Marzo, 2018)


- Sukses ditentukan oleh keberuntungan, bukan bakat (Beritagar.id Indonesia, March 12, 2018)


- Waarom hardwerkende talentvolle mensen niet per definitie succesvol zijn, en omgekeerd (DeMorgen.be, March 12, 2018)


- Cómo la suerte influye en el éxito o fracaso de las personas (TekCrispy.com, March 12, 2018)


- The Hidden Truth About Success (Thrillngr, March 12, 2018)


- Cette étude analyse les facteurs qui conduisent à la richesse, et le talent n’y est pour rien (Ulyces, March 12, 2018)


- Des scientifiques ont analysé le secret pour devenir riche, et il n'est pas dans le talent (Ohchouette, March 13, 2018)


- Il successo è dovuto alla fortuna, non al talento (In Dies NEWS, 13 Marzo 2018)


- Talento e Fortuna: il ruolo della casualità nel successo e nel fallimento (Fondazione Ottimisti e Razionali, 13 Marzo 2018)


- Pourquoi le talent ne garantit pas nécessairement la réussite (Le Vif, March 13, 2018)


- Toeval is boven alles de sleutel tot succes (Yoors, March 14, 2018)


- Ganar dinero no es sólo cuestión de talento (Tendencias Sociales, March 14, 2018)


- Forscher haben den Schlüssel zum Reichtum gefunden - und er hat nichts mit Talent zu tun (Business Insider, March 14, 2018)


- Success heeft meer met geluk te maken dan met talent (Metronieuws, March 14, 2018)


- Recreating the Talent vs Luck model (By Josh Balloch, March 14, 2018) - Related comments


- La suerte es más importante que el talento y la inteligencia (Muy Interesante, March 15, 2018)


- Mokslininkai: nei protas, nei talentai jusu turtingais nepadarys (INFA Lituania, March 16, 2018)


- Business Lessons from Jack Ma- Alibaba and the 40 SaaS (25iq, March 17, 2018)


- World’s most successful people are simply the luckiest (Express Digest, March 17, 2018)


- Si triunfas en la vida seguramente no sea ni por tu talento ni tu inteligencia (Noticias Venezuela, March 18, 2018)


- Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality with stochasticity (Medium Corporation, March 18, 2018)


- ¿Son los más inteligentes los que llegan a hacerse ricos? Un estudio dice tener la respuesta (El Blog Salmòn, March 19, 2018)


- Nicht nur Talent und Fleiß: Warum manche Menschen reich werden – und andere nicht (Focus.de, March 19, 2018)


- Rethinking Work, Luck and Success (The Amherst Student, March 20, 2018)


- Are Richest People The Smartest? A New Study says No (Financial Wisdom, March 21, 2018)


- You’re smart. So why aren’t you worth $73.1 billion? (Thrive Global, March 21, 2018)


- Giving as real wealth of ‘human-omics’ (The Statesman, March 22, 2018)


- Are You Smart? Sorry, You Might Not End Up Rich (US News, March 23, 2018)


- A proposito di ricchezza e casualità (Steemit Russia, March 25, 2018)


- Luck, Luck, Luck (Triangulations, March 25, 2018)


- Carriere, lo studio: “La fortuna conta più del talento. Per questo i mediocri battono chi ha maggiori abilità” (Il Fatto Quotidiano, 28 Marzo 2018)


- Il segreto per il successo? “Il talento non basta, ci vuole fortuna”: uno studio catanese (Live Unict, 28 Marzo 2018)


- Giving as real wealth of 'human-omics' (The Dailystar - India, March 29, 2018)


- Crescita professionale, la fortuna può contare più del talento per fare carriera (Business.it 29 Marzo 2018)


- How Luck Shapes Your Life - Part 1 (Psychology Today, March 29, 2018)

- How Luck Shapes Your Life - Part 2 (Psychology Today, March 29, 2018)


- Als jij zo slim bent waarom ben je dan niet schatrijk? (Yoo.rs Olanda, March 31, 2018)


- What Role Does Luck Play In Success? (Forbes US, April 2, 2018)


- El éxito no depende tanto del talento como de la suerte, afirma estudio (El Comercio Spain, April 5, 2018)


- Científicos descubren la clave del éxito (Blasting News Spain, April 6, 2018)


- Held betyder langt mere for succes i livet, end vi er klar over (Information, Danmark, April 7, 2018)


- Talent vs Luck:differentiating success from failure (True Economics, April 8, 2018)


- Sharing wealth is the best antidote to populism (The Irish Times, April 9, 2018)


- Võidujooksu asemel võimalused (Sirp - Eesti Kultuurileht, April 13, 2018)


- Il successo te lo dà Sancùlo, il talento conta molto poco (Libero, 14 Aprile 2018)

- «Talento? No, serve solo fortuna» Critiche al neo assessore Rizzoli (Corriere della Sera - Milano, 16 Aprile 2018)


- ¿Existe realmente la suerte? (Cuba Coopera, April 16, 2018)


- Basarı kadere mi sansa mı baglı (Psikiyatr, April 19, 2018)


- La fortuna conta più del talento per fare carriera? (Radio 24: Intervista con Maria Latella, 22 Aprile 2018)


- Is control over your life just an illusion? Here's a game that has you making life decisions based on the roll of a die (Boingboing.net, May 1, 2018)


- Talento o fortuna? Quale aspetto pesa di più nel determinare il successo di una persona? (The Box, 04 Maggio 2018)


- Talento o fortuna? di Riccardo Stucchi (Il Post.it, 07 Maggio 2018)


- Analysis: If you’re rich, you’re more lucky than smart. And there’s math to prove it (PBS - News Hour, May 15, 2018)

- Discussion in the Locker Room (May 18, 2018)


- Mathematics confirms rich people aren't smart—they're lucky (Bigthink, May 20, 2018)


- Proof that redistribution and equality provide the best outcomes for society and that fortunes are built on luck (Reddit, May 22, 2018)


- Meritocracy is a chimera (Forbes, May 29, 2018)


- KURIER LUBELSKI, Polonia July 09, 2018)


- Basarı kadere mi sansa mı baglı (Psikiyatri, Turkey July 09, 2018)


- Las rachas de éxito no dependen de aumentar el esfuerzo, sino que llegan por azar (El Pais, July 11, 2018)


- Skill vs luck: who really deserves the rewards from success? (The Conversation UK, July 16, 2018)


- Are rich people smart or just lucky? (A Better Man, July 24, 2018)


- On Luck (Marketcap, An investment commentary, September 06, 2018)


- Tre docenti etnei intervistati da una TV coreana (Bollettino di Ateneo, Università di Catania, 19 Settembre, 2018)


- Absolute success is luck, relative success is hard work (Dinar Recaps, September 20, 2018)


- Talent, Luck and Income Inequality (DailyKos.com, October 04, 2018)


- De grootste mazzel in jouw loopbaan? (NRC.nl, October 19, 2018)


- Przypadek kontra mity - Chance against Myths (Obserwatorfinansowy.pl, October 21, 2018)


- Chance is king: eight ways we can deal with it (by Michael F. Bruyn, Medium.com October 22, 2018)


- This study shows talent is overrated, and luck plays a huge role in success (by Greg McKenna, Business Insider Australia, November 22, 2018)


- Come si costruisce il successo (Focus Italia, Gennaio 2019)


- Siamo noi gli artefici della nostra fortuna? (di Gaia Giorgetti, "F" Settimanale Femminile, 20 Marzo 2019)


- The Success of Chance: 10th European Lotteries Congress (Antwerp, 26-29 May 2019) - VIDEO - SLIDES


- A 40-Year Scientific Study Reveals the Richest People Are Never the Most Talented - and Why That's a Really Good Thing (by Jeff Haden, Inc.com August 1, 2019) 

- Merito e successo sono correlati? (di Roberto Panzarani su Centodieci.it, 20 Ottobre 2019) 

- Talento vs. Suerte: un nuevo modelo matematico muestra que el exito es mas cuestion de suerte que de esfuerzo (Microsiervos.com, 23 de Octubre 2019) 

- Luck, not just talent, in supposed meritocracy: A new documentary (Improbable Research, November 2019) 

- Luck you! Acknowledging that your success is a function of both good fortune and talent may not be flattering, but it could make you a better leader (Theodore Kinni on Strategy+Business.com, 01 November 2019) 

- Per fare carriera ci vuole fortuna? (di Marco Lucarelli su Manageritalia.it, 13 Novembre 2019) 

- Making your own look in your career (by Pavel Kaprivin, Forbes October 03, 2020) 

- How to get smarter every day, according to neuroscience (by Jeff Haden, Inc.com November 24, 2020) 

- The long-term impact our boss has on our career (by Adi Gaskell, Forbes November 17, 2020)

- Are professors and football stars just lucky? (by Anna Beukenhorst, Significance Magazine May 06, 2022)